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Pondering the universe


Paper tiger forces

We have been seeing that the armed forces of many nations seem to be strong, but are actually far less capable than what they appear.

The consensus when Russia invaded Ukraine was that they would win the country in days. They expected that themselves. The result is that they had to make a huge retreat when they met with some very basic defense. The years since has shown them to have been sabotaged by their own strategic incompetence, obsolete equipment that has been hobbled by years of corruption, and poorly trained soldiers. Ukraine's vastly smaller numbers were highly effective using equipment no better than what the Russian had, mainly by being far move innovative with drone technology and better battlefield coordination.

Israel was considered one of the most competent and effective military forces in the world, but Hammas managed to break out of the Gaza prison, overrun nearby Israeli bases, and take hundreds of hostages. It took over six hours for the IDF to respond, during which time citizens were hiding, waiting to be found and killed. The Southern Command base is less than 40km away, which should have made for a much more rapid response from those whose specialty was dealing with Hammas. All this was despite knowing about the Hammas plans a year in advance and having pervasive surveillance facilities.

The US has a huge military-industrial complex, but it is having problems supplying Ukraine with enough ammunition. They no longer have the capability to invade another country, and can only lob bombs from the sea.

Seeing such monumental difference in what they project and their actual capability undermines their ability to threaten other nations into submission, and makes such displays of force fairly meaningless bluffs. The world is changing, and providing meaningful deterrents to aggressions by rogue states is critical. Conversely, having a reduced capacity to deal with internal dissenting forces weakens a nation's stability. How the mighty have fallen!

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