Taiwan is not Ukraine

Some feel that a successful invasion of Ukraine by Russia may give impetus for China to invade Taiwan. This largely ignores a critical difference between how the world sees the two target countries.

Ukraine is a separate nation and recognised as such by almost all other countries, so there has rightly been condemnation of Russia for invading it on the pretext that it is really a part of Russia. To a certain extent that is true, but only in that the Russian peoples came out of the Ukraine area. However, that cultural historical link should have nothing politically to do with what the current people of Ukraine choose to do with their own nation.

In order to trade with [the People's Republic of] China, many nations have appeased them by adopting a one-China policy, which tacitly agrees that there is only one real China. It has been a pragmatic ruse in order to achieve the economic benefits of trading with the bigger China. However, it does bestow a legitimacy to their claims over Taiwan, and so China does not need any justification from Russia's action for an invasion of Taiwan.

However, the swift economic reactions to Russia's invasion does provide China with some idea of what it could face if they did their own invasion. The key is that Ukraine does not get direct military support from other nations because they are not a member of NATO, but the sanctions were implemented against Russia on the basis of being an recognised independent nation by those who have imposed the sanctions.

So where does this leave Taiwan that is not even recognised diplomatically by many of the same sanction-implementing nations that have compromised themselves to deal with China? Given how nations that have significant economic dependencies on Russia, like India and Israel, have abstained from condemning them, China could reasonably expect, with its critical economic stranglehold on the world, to have far less to fear from sanctions if they invaded Taiwan.

With its promise of cheap reliable labour, China enticed a lot of foreign companies to end up relying on the country for continued financial viability. With such dependencies, those companies have compromised their governments ability to act against China in any significant way. Words of token disapproval don't translate into any support for Taiwan if China invades. Another case of greed and selfishness compromising principles.

People, and consequently countries, are not perfect, but we cannot let past actions stop us from acting better now and in the future. However, to change we have to undo some of our current arrangements, which will create short-term problems now, but enable us to act with the freedom to follow principles. That may slow down economic activity, but given that climate change would also be abated by it, we should probably take the opportunity to make a better world politically and environmentally.